Week 4 Cloud Coverage
Auburn & Oklahoma look to strengthen their very early CFP cases, Notre Dame looks to notch its first win, and multiple rivals could be matching up for the last time for a long while.
It’s hard to believe we are already in Week 4 of the 2025 college football season.
The action kicks off Thursday night when Rice travels to Charlotte (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) and continues Friday evening when Oklahoma State hosts Tulsa (7:30, ESPN) and Iowa visits Rutgers (8:00, FOX)
What can we expect on Saturday? Let’s dive into the action…
Marquee matchups
No. 17 Texas Tech at No. 16 Utah (Noon, FOX):
The day kicks off with a Big 12 Big Noon Kickoff clash between the Red Raiders and Utes, which will be the first matchup between the schools since playing in back-to-back years (1972-73).
The Red Raiders (3-0) were the story of the offseason because of their investment in the transfer portal, courtesy of super booster Cody Campbell, and they seek their first trip to a Big 12 championship game. Joey McGuire’s squad has outscored its first three opponents 174-35.
The Utes (3-0), meanwhile, are eighth in the FBS in scoring defense (8.3 points per game) and 14th in scoring offense (45.7 points per game). The offense has been recharged with the arrival of dual-threat Devon Dampier, who is 12th in the FBS in completion percentage at 73 percent and has thrown for 628 yards and 7 touchdowns thus far.
Can Utah, which won Pac-12 titles in 2021 and 2022, reach its first-ever CFP?
Red Raiders gunslinger Behren Morton is averaging over 307 passing yards per game, has thrown the most touchdowns of any player in the FBS (11) and has thrown just one interception. He has the goods to help the Red Raiders win the program’s first outright conference title since 1955. But the Utes defense will be a tough challenge.
No. 22 Auburn at No. 11 Oklahoma (3:30, ABC):
Former five-star QB recruit Jackson Arnold faces his former team as the Tigers head to Norman to take on a Sooners squad led by its own transfer QB, John Mateer, who leads the SEC in passing yards per game under new coordinator Ben Arbuckle. Arnold, meanwhile, is fitting in just well on The Plains after debuting with a 137-yard rushing performance in the season-opening win at Baylor, and he has yet to throw an interception.
We have yet to see Arnold need to win a game with his downfield passing, though. Up to this point, the Tigers have not had to rely on too many explosive plays from wide receivers Eric Singleton and Cam Coleman. That will likely need to change against this Brent Venables defense.
Auburn still has to answer some questions about its pass defense as well, and OU has been a bit more balanced offensively.
No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana (7:30, NBC):
The Fighting Illini were a chic preseason pick to be this year’s Indiana, which made the College Football Playoff in 2024 after winning a team-record 11 games. Bret Bielema’s squad won 10 games last season, returned a lot of production and is trying to notch consecutive 10-win campaigns for the first time in program history.
The ranked matchup between Illinois and Indiana will be the first in the series since 1950, and it will be the first Top-20 matchup in Bloomington since 1987.
The Illini will want to play smashmouth football and limit the amount of time Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers offense are on the field. Getting into a shootout would not be ideal.
I like the moxie of the Illini, but this one won’t be easy.
Pac-12 redux
Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon (3:00, BTN):
The 129th Civil War will take place with one of the biggest point spreads in series history and with an uncertain future. The Ducks have won the last eight meetings in Eugene and claimed a 49-14 win in Corvallis last season.
Dante Moore has settled in nicely as the starting QB for the Ducks (657 passing yards with 7 TDs and an INT), while Maalik Murphy has thrown 5 INTs for the Beavers. However, Oregon State does have 17 completions of 20-plus yards, but that aerial attack will get tested by Dan Lanning’s defense.
Washington at Washington State (7:30, CBS):
The Apple Cup has been one of my favorite rivalries since I was a little kid. I particularly loved when the elements played a factor, especially when the game was played in Pullman.
Sadly, these teams (like the Civil War participants) are no longer conference foes and this game is not being played on Thanksgiving weekend.
Last week, the Cougars were dismantled by North Texas 59-10 as turnovers did them in. As long as the Huskies aren’t looking ahead to their home game against Ohio State next week, Wazzu could be in trouble.
Group of Five spotlight game
Tulane at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30, ESPN):
The 3-0 Green Wave have a chance to declare themselves the team to beat in the Group of Five arms race for a CFP berth if they can upset the Rebels (3-0) in Oxford.
Former Ole Miss assistant Jon Sumrall has already led Tulane to wins over Northwestern and Duke, the Green Wave have been able to keep the ground game humming despite losing Makhi Hughes to the transfer portal, and BYU transfer QB Jake Retzlaff looks comfortable in his new setting.
Pulling the upset will be a tough task, though, as Ole Miss is averaging 44.7 points and 541.7 yards per game.
Sunshine State battle
Florida at No. 4 Miami, FL (7:30, ABC):
Maybe it’s just me, but this feels like a potentially tough spot for the Hurricanes, who will be hosting ESPN’s College GameDay as they look to stay undefeated.
The Gators will be looking to stop a two-game skid and avenge their embarrassing 41-17 loss to the Hurricanes to open the 2024 season.
Billy Napier’s team ranks No. 102 in yards per play defensively, while DJ Lagway has thrown six interceptions. Meanwhile, Hurricanes QB Carson Beck is completing nearly 80 percent of his passes.
It doesn’t look good for UF on paper, but this one feels like it could be much closer than the experts think.
Other notable matchups
SMU at TCU (Noon, ESPN2): The loss of the Iron Skillet rivalry is tough to swallow. The Horned Frogs have elected to not renew the annual home-and-home series, which is disappointing. It’s also sad because these programs managed to break into the Power Four—and make a significant impact pretty quickly.
TCU earned a trip to the College Football Playoff national championship game in 2022, while SMU earned a CFP bid during its first year in the ACC last year. So this could have been a nice data point for the victor in future years. But that’s the romantic coming out in me.
Instead, we will see the Mustangs and Horned Frogs play what we can all hope is a thriller for perhaps the last time in a long while.
No. 21 Michigan at Nebraska (3:30, CBS): Both the Wolverines and Cornhuskers have strong turnover margins. Michigan is No. 11 in the FBS at +5, while Nebraska sits 16th at +4. Whichever quarterback best protects the ball could come out on top.
Purdue at No. 24 Notre Dame (3:30, NBC): Look for Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish to get things right against the in-state Boilermakers. ND’s red zone offense ranks 1st in the FBS, scoring on 100 percent of its opportunities. CJ Carr will continue to get more comfortable running the offense, while Jeremiyah Love (just 127 yards on 33 carries with a TD) has his 2025 breakout game.
North Carolina at UCF (3:30, FOX): Bill Belichick and Scott Frost square off in what could be a lower-scoring affair. UCF is allowing opponents to convert on just 25 percent of their third-down attempts, while the Tar Heels are converting just 33.3 percent of theirs on offense.
South Carolina at No. 23 Missouri (7:00, ESPN): The health of Gamecocks star QB LaNorris Sellers (concussion) is still in doubt. Shane Beamer’s squad may have to turn to sixth-year senior Luke Doty for this road tilt. And can the ‘Cocks slow down Ahmed Hardy, who ranks second in the FBS with 462 rushing yards?
Arizona State at Baylor (7:30, FOX): The Sun Devils have one of the top rushing attacks in the country, led by Raleek Brown and QB Sam Leavitt, while Dave Aranda’s Bears have been very porous in stopping the run. Auburn had more than 300 rushing yards against them.
Michigan State at No. 25 USC (11:00, FOX): A Big Ten conference game kicking off at 11:00 ET? Welcome to the new college football landscape…the Trojans rank 2nd in the FBS in red zone defense, allowing opponents to score on just 42.9 percent of trips, so Aidan Chiles and the Spartans may need to connect on some big plays to stay in this one.
Don’t forget we are blessed with a Hawai’i home game, so we get an 11:59 ET kickoff as the Rainbow Warriors host Fresno State.
This week’s best bets
*SMU +7
*Notre Dame -26
*Arizona State +2
Cocktail of the week
In honor of the very late Fresno State-Hawai’i kickoff, we’re going to need something to help keep us awake into the wee hours of the morning. Below, instructions for an espresso martini!
*In a small shaker, add 2 oz. vodka (or, as always, add more!), .5 oz Kahlua, 1 oz. espresso (freshly brewed or cold brew concentrate) and .5 oz simple syrup
*Drop fresh ice into a large shaker, combine the two and shake vigorously
*Strain into either a coupe with no ice or into a rocks glass over fresh ice (your choice)
*Add cocoa powder, chocolate shavings or coffee beans as garnish. Enjoy!
You will not stop at just one of these, I promise.
Enjoy all of the Week 4 action, and see you next week!
Follow me on X @Miller_Dave & email me at david.matthew.miller@gmail.com