Week 11 Friday Tailgate
Several key matchups are on the slate for the second Saturday in November.
Positioning in the race for a College Football Playoff berth continues as we enter the second Saturday in November, while teams outside of national title contention continue to seek bowl eligibility and position themselves for better postseason destinations.
We had two nights of #MACtion earlier this week, a new set of CFP rankings as well as a wild UNC-Pittsburgh showdown that ended in overtime—in a downpour at Heinz Field.
Let’s take a look at Friday night’s action:
No. 5 Cincinnati-USF (6:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2): The Bearcats have had three straight underwhelming performances but find themselves in the thick of the CFP race. This shouldn’t be too close of a game if Luke Fickell’s bunch is at its best, though the Bulls have Brian Battie, who had two 100-yard kickoff returns for TDs and a 29-yard scoring run last week.
Wyoming-Boise State (9:00, FS1): The Broncos looked dominant at Fresno State last week and are alive in the Mountain West Mountain division race, but they have to win out to have a chance. Expect both teams to emphasize the run, but the offensive balance of the Broncos gives them the edge.
Now, onto Saturday’s slate, which features four matchups between ranked teams:
No. 8 Oklahoma-No. 13 Baylor
The shine was taken off of this Big 12 clash just a little bit with TCU’s upset win over the Bears last week. But the setback cannot diminish what Dave Aranda has done in his second season in Waco. Baylor went 2-7 last year and is sitting at 7-2 heading into this clash with the Sooners, who have won 17 straight games and remain the standard in the league until they head off to the SEC.
Lincoln Riley’s squad has won eight consecutive road games against ranked conference foes, while the Bears are unbeaten at home this season. But Aranda will be coaching his first game without associate head coach Joey McGuire, who was named the new head coach at Texas Tech this week. He’ll also have to find a way to contain the dual-threat ability of Sooners QB Caleb Williams, who has completed 71.6 percent of his throws and has tossed just 1 INT.
Look for the Bears to rely on their eighth-ranked rushing offense (230.9 yards per game), led by Abram Smith, who has six 100-yard games this fall. But receiver Tyquan Thorton has emerged as one of the conference’s top receiving threats and could pose problems for a susceptible Sooners pass defense.
OU is coming off of a bye and will be at its healthiest all season, and it will also be looking to put its best foot forward as it seeks to better position itself in the College Football Playoff race.
No. 19 Purdue-No. 4 Ohio State
Does Boilermakers head coach Jeff Brohm have yet another trick up his sleeve? Purdue has knocked off two Top-4 teams already this season, but the Big Ten’s standard bearer now awaits in Columbus.
Ohio State has been able to make in-season defensive improvements, but it’s now tasked with slowing down an offense that is clicking on all cylinders behind QB Aidan O’Connell, who is completing 71.6 percent of his throws, and WR David Bell, who leads the Big Ten in receiving yards (1,003). This young Buckeyes secondary will be tested early and often.
Meanwhile, the dangerous Buckeyes offense will face a Boilermakers defense that is much improved and features DE George Karlaftis, who is very disruptive up front. Remember, the Buckeyes offensive line didn’t look great against Nebraska’s defense last week. OSU QB C.J. Stroud should get WR Garrett Wilson back to go along with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Chris Olave, but Purdue’s corners offer a tough test.
Survive and advance. That’s simply what Ryan Day and Co. need to do as they try to claim the Big East division crown, a league title and a berth in the CFP.
No. 11 Texas A&M-No. 15 Ole Miss
Another critical SEC West division matchup takes place with Rebels QB Matt Corral’s ankle still an issue. Head coach Lane Kiffin noted that Corral is essentially re-aggravating the injury each game, and now he has to face an Aggies defense—filled with future NFL players—that will force a quarterback to often be on the run. So being gimpy doesn’t bode well for Corral and this Rebels offense.
Expect a lot of work for Jerrion Ealy, but even his effectiveness could be slowed because of the lack of running threat from Corral. The Rebels will also be without OL Ben Brown, who was lost for the season with a torn biceps, and they’re dealing with depth issues at receiver. Keep an eye on former QB John Rhys Plumlee, who had 7 catches for 110 yards against Liberty.
It sounds really crazy, but Jimbo Fisher’s squad can still sneak into the CFP. The Aggies would have to win out and have Alabama fall to either Arkansas or Auburn, which would make TAMU the SEC West division champ. From there, they would have to upset Georgia in Atlanta. But, that would be a pretty strong 2-loss résumé, don’t you think?
Other key games to monitor:
No. 6 Michigan-Penn State
Mississippi State-No. 17 Auburn
UCF-SMU
No. 1 Georgia-Tennessee
Minnesota-No. 20 Iowa
UAB-Marshall
Miami (FL)-Florida State
Iowa State-Texas Tech
Louisiana-Troy
Maryland-No. 7 Michigan State
Arizona State-Washington
No. 9 Notre Dame-Virginia
No. 16 NC State-No. 12 Wake Forest
No. 25 Arkansas-LSU
TCU-No. 10 Oklahoma State
Washington State-No. 3 Oregon
Nevada-No. 22 San Diego State
Utah State-San Jose State
Best bets
As always, I release my picks via Twitter on Saturday morning. But if I have to lean early, I’d go:
Michigan -1.5
Texas A&M -2.5
Notre Dame -5.5
Skinny posts
*Can Tennessee hang with top-ranked Georgia on Rocky Top? The Bulldogs have the nastiest defense in the country and have coasted throughout the season. But if the Vols defense rises up on multiple occasions and forces UGA to settle for field goals, if Hendon Hooker can connect on a couple of big plays down the field and if Stetson Bennett is either consistently harassed or has to throw more often than Kirby Smart would like, we could see a four-quarter game in Knoxville. Maybe. No matter what happens, it can’t take away from the job Josh Heupel has done this fall. Tremendous.
*In a very surprising move, UConn hired former UCLA head coach Jim Mora to rebuild the program. AD David Benedict announced the move on Thursday, with Mora and the school coming to terms on a five-year contract. He will officially begin his head-coaching duties on November 28 after serving as an assistant for the remainder of this season—allowing the 59-year-old to begin recruiting. While Mora last coached in 2017, when he was let go at UCLA after going 46-30, you have to credit Benedict for bringing in a big name—no matter how this turns out. UConn will be just the second college head gig for Mora, who was in the NFL before coming to Westwood.
*Middle Tennessee decided to remain in Conference USA after considering a chance to jump to the Mid-American Conference. School president Sidney McPhee said in a statement Wednesday that C-USA’s additions of Jacksonville State, Liberty, New Mexico State and Sam Houston State will help stabilize the league—one that has lost eight members to the American Athletic Conference and Sun Belt, respectively, during the latest round of realignment. McPhee cited C-USA’s strong footprint in the South and Southwest that would offer new regional rivalries while keeping traditional opponents for the Blue Raiders. Later in the day, MAC commissioner Jon Steinbrecher released a statement noting the league would not pursue expansion. Steinbrecher said the MAC had discussions about the topic and was contacted by some schools but never took any applications or had a vote about possible additions. The Associated Press reported that MAC presidents had met to discuss Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee as potential options. In its release, the MAC said it would “continue to monitor the membership landscape” nationally.
*Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst announced Thursday that starting RB Chez Mellusi would miss the rest of the season with a left leg injury after leaving last week’s win over Rutgers. Mellusi leads the Badgers with 815 rushing yards on 173 carries. Chryst said the junior transfer from Clemson is not expected to return for spring practice. Wisconsin, which hosts Northwestern on Saturday, will feature freshman Braelon Allen in a bigger role—and that’s not such a bad thing. Allen has five consecutive 100-yard rushing days—the first Badgers freshman to do so since Anthony Davis in 2001. His production has been huge following the season-ending foot injury to Isaac Guerendo and dismissal of Jalen Berger.
*Saturday’s USC-Cal game was postponed earlier in the week after the Golden Bears started dealing with additional COVID-19 cases within the program after they were undermanned for their game at Arizona last Saturday. ‘SC and Cal agreed, and received Pac-12 approval, to reschedule the game for December 4, which is a day after the conference title game.
Cocktail of the week
Okay, I may be getting a little too much into the Christmas spirit. But, here in Chicago, we are expecting to see a little snow for the first time this season this weekend. So, I present the perfect cocktail for a first snowfall: the Amaretto Cranberry Kiss.
*In a small shaker, combine 1.5 oz. vodka, .5 oz Amaretto, 2 oz. cranberry juice and .25 oz OJ
*Add ice to large shaker; combine shakers and shake vigorously
*Strain into a chilled martini glass; garnish with a slice of mandarin orange or orange peel
Enjoy all of the games this weekend!
Follow me on Twitter @Miller_Dave & email me at david.matthew.miller@gmail.com