With the Los Angeles Rams putting a bow on the 2021 NFL season with their Super Bowl LVI win over the Cincinnati Bengals, and the 2022 NFL Combine in Indianapolis in the rear view mirror, we are getting ever so closer to April’s Draft as teams look to best-position their rosters for both the short and long term.
This is my first attempt at predicting the first 32 picks of the first round next month, and my initial mock had to go through heavy editing after Seattle landed a Top-10 pick as part of the blockbuster Russell Wilson deal to Denver.
We still have pro days and team interviews across the country to monitor, but here is how the first round could potentially play out when the league descends upon Las Vegas on April 28.
1. Jacksonville (3-14): Alabama OT Evan Neal. The Jaguars could opt for edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, but protecting QB Trevor Lawrence—even with LT Cam Robinson getting the franchise tag—would make Neal an intriguing pick for new head coach Doug Pederson. He would be the first offensive lineman taken No. 1 overall since Eric Fisher in 2013, and shockingly the first Crimson Tide player since Harry Gilmer (1948) to be selected No. 1 overall. Even though he was not in Indy, he should turn heads at his pro day.
2. Detroit (3-13-1): Michigan EDGE Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions need upgrades in several key areas, but getting Hutchinson at No. 2 would be huge for a team looking to improve on their sack total (30) from 2021. His pass-rushing skills would be very desirous in the Motor City, especially because Charles Harris is a free agent.
3. Houston (4-13): Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Texans need to get to the quarterback on a more consistent basis and have not yet replaced J.J. Watt, so grabbing the quick and versatile Thibodeaux here would be wise. The team’s secondary has also been very porous, so keep an eye on Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton in this spot. He could be moved around in new head coach Lovie Smith’s defense.
4. New York Jets (4-13): NC State OT Ikem Ekwonu. It would not be shocking to see Ekwonu rise to No. 1 by draft day because he’s a load to handle both in the run game and in pass protection—and Jets QB Zach Wilson needs to stay upright. The team allowed 53 sacks in 2021. The franchise could also look for help on the edge after registering 33 sacks defensively last season.
5. New York Giants (4-13): Mississippi State OL Charles Cross. The G-Men need help along the offensive line and have a chance to get a very athletic big man with both balance and power.
6. Carolina (5-12): Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton. The Panthers need help at safety, and Hamilton is the most intriguing prospect from the defensive backfield in this draft. His combination of size, speed and ball-hawking ability is too much to pass up in this spot.
7. N.Y. Giants (via trade with Chicago): Georgia DE Travon Walker. After getting help up front on offense, the Giants can grab Walker to aid the other side of the ball. He was a bit overlooked on the UGA front seven, but he performed very well in Indianapolis and has a high ceiling to eventually develop into a strong edge rusher.
8. Atlanta (7-10): USC WR Drake London. The Falcons need help in several areas, but an additional issue they didn’t see coming was replacing WR Calvin Ridley, who was suspended for betting on games. Does the franchise look for a Matt Ryan replacement here, such as Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis? Kyle Pitts needs someone to take a little attention off of him, and London is a tough and speedy pass-catcher who can be used both inside and out.
9. Seattle (7-10, via trade with Denver): Liberty QB Malik Willis. Without a first-round selection heading into the offseason, the Seahawks entered the Top 10 after launching a rebuild and trading its franchise quarterback. The team could play it safe and avoid making a decision under center with Drew Lock in the fold, but Willis has a big arm, very good mobility and huge upside. He would not have to assume the starting role right away, although we are obviously seeing more rookies get the keys sooner than later.
10. N.Y. Jets (via trade with Seattle): Cincinnati CB Ahmad Gardner. After landing Ekwonu, the Jets get saucy and grab a defender that can make plays all over the field and lock down opposing receivers.
11. Washington (7-10): Utah ILB Devin Lloyd. The Commanders addressed their need at QB with the trade for Carson Wentz, so getting the rangy and speedy Lloyd would be a nice selection. I can see Georgia’s Nakobe Dean being in play here as well.
12. Minnesota (8-9): LSU CB Derek Stingley, Jr. The Vikings need help at corner, and passing up a player as talented as Stingley is too big of a risk. The concern is whether or not he can stay healthy and get back to the form we saw in 2019, which was his freshman season in Baton Rouge. Don’t dismiss a QB here, though, if either GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah or new head coach Kevin O’Connell love, say, Pickett.
13. Cleveland (8-9): Ohio State WR Garrett Wilson. The Browns need to add an explosive offensive piece after their leading receiver (Donovan Peoples-Jones) finished with less than 600 receiving yards in 2021. Wilson has incredible body control, is a good route runner and boasts electric speed.
14. Baltimore (8-9): Northern Iowa OT Trevor Penning. The Ravens really need help at OT, and Penning is a strong big man (6-7, 321) with a high ceiling. He also has good mobility for his size.
15. Philadelphia (9-8, via trade with Miami): Georgia ILB Nakobe Dean. The Eagles will have a chance to address a lot of needs in this first round, and Dean offers them a speedy, rangy defender who can cover and snuff out the run.
16. Philadelphia (via trade with Indianapolis): Washington CB Trent McDuffie. Philly needs help in the defensive backfield after allowing quarterbacks to complete nearly 70 percent of their passes last year. Enter McDuffie, who did not allow a touchdown in coverage over the last two seasons.
17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8): Georgia DT Jordan Davis. The Chargers need to address their porous run defense, which allowed 4.6 yards per carry last season, so Davis could become a key cog in their 3-4 scheme. His very large frame would do wonders up front for this squad.
18. New Orleans (9-8): Arkansas WR Treylon Burks. The play here could be QB, but the Saints could opt for a big, physical receiver who can rack up YAC after recording 1,104 yards and 11 TDs for the Razorbacks last season.
19. Philadelphia (9-8): Ohio State WR Chris Olave. The Eagles can put a bow on their first round with a receiver who had 35 career scores for the Buckeyes and can be a legit threat on the outside at the pro level.
20. Pittsburgh (9-7-1): Ole Miss QB Matt Corral. The transition to a long term signal caller has begun in the Steel City, and Corral could be the pick here—if the Steelers do not move up for another QB. Corral had a very strong ‘21, throwing just 5 INTs. He’s a dual-threat, but there will be a steeper learning curve compared to some other QBs in this class. But he has the arm and is tough. He’ll have a chance to impress at his pro day.
21. New England (10-7): Michigan OLB David Ojabo. The Patriots could go a variety of directions, but it would seemingly be too tough to pass up a pass rusher who had 11 sacks and five forced fumbles last season. There is room to grow against the run, but he can be a disrupter off the edge.
22. Las Vegas (10-7): Clemson CB Andrew Booth, Jr. The Raiders need help at WR and have ushered in a new era under GM Dave Ziegler and head coach Josh McDaniels. It’ll be interesting to see what direction the franchise goes here, but Booth is a corner with very good ball skills who can fit in multiple schemes. A receiver could be the move here, too, if a big name is still available.
23. Arizona (11-6): Georgia DT Devonte Wyatt. The Cardinals will likely be looking at several areas in the first round, and perhaps giving QB Kyler Murray another toy will be the move. But Wyatt impressed at the Senior Bowl and comes from a program that boasted one of the nastiest defenses in college football history.
24. Dallas (12-5): Florida State DE Jermaine Johnson II. The Cowboys need to address some potential free-agency losses across the defense, and Johnson recorded 12 sacks and 45 pressures in Tallahassee last season and impressed at the Senior Bowl.
25. Buffalo (11-6): Boston College G/C Zion Johnson. The Bills could look to a player whose 32 reps on the bench press led all O-Linemen at this year’s Combine. He played left guard in 2021 but can also move to center. A strong interior presence who did not allow a QB pressure last fall.
26. Tennessee (12-5): Central Michigan OT Bernhard Raimann. The Titans allowed 47 sacks last year and have a lot of expiring contracts across the line after 2022. Raimann is a former tight end who excelled in 2021 and is solid in pass protection and run blocking.
27. Tampa Bay (13-4): Texas A&M G Kenyon Green. The Aggie may not have had the best Combine, but the Bucs have free-agent issues and the retirement of G Ali Marpet to deal with this offseason. Green offers some versatility along an O-Line that has a lot of questions right now.
28. Green Bay (13-4): Alabama WR Jameson Williams. Finally, the Packers give QB Aaron Rodgers a first-round receiver to aid the offense. The explosive Williams, of course, is coming off of a torn ACL in the national championship game, so his availability remains a major question mark for 2022. But he averaged nearly 20 yards per catch and had 15 TDs last year, and he could eventually become the next dominant receiver regularly doing Lambeau leaps.
29. Miami (9-8, via trade with San Francisco): Minnesota OL Daniel Faalele.
The Dolphins desperately need to put a better O-Line together to protect QB Tua Tagovailoa, so I wouldn’t rule out trading up in case there is a run on O-Linemen. Faalele is an absolute monster (6-8, 387) and has all of the physical tools to be a success. But he is raw, as he’s new to both the position and the sport.
30. Kansas City (12-5): Minnesota OLB Boye Mafe. The Chiefs need to improve their edge rushing, and the strong, versatile Mafe is coming off of a strong Senior Bowl performance.
31. Cincinnati (10-7): Iowa C Tyler Linderbaum. The Bengals really need help up front, and this is another team that could trade up for an O-Lineman. In this case, Linderbaum drops to them, and Cincy gets one of the better recent center prospects.
32. Detroit (via trade with Los Angeles Rams): Michigan S Daxton Hill. The Lions once again stay in-state by getting Hill after his impressive 4.38-second 40-yard dash in Indy. He projects at either a free or strong safety. The Lions could also entertain the idea of a QB, so perhaps North Carolina’s Sam Howell could be in play.
Franchises without a first-round pick:
Chicago (6-11)
Denver (7-10)
Indianapolis (9-8)
San Francisco (10-7)
Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
Note: A wild card is Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett, who is clearly one of the most talented signal callers in this draft. He threw for 4,319 yards with 42 TDs and 7 INTs last season. He generated buzz in Indy due to his hand size, and seemingly every year we see a top player fall. The way this first mock went, Pickett happened to drop. It would not be a surprise, however, if he finds himself squarely entrenched in next month’s mock.
Follow me on Twitter @Miller_Dave & email me at david.matthew.miller@gmail.com