The 2024-25 men’s college basketball season has been nothing short of sensational.
The SEC shattered the Big East’s record of 11 NCAA Tournament bids (2010-11) with 14 berths—a very far cry from 2016 when only three SEC teams made it into the Big Dance and only Texas A&M advanced past the second round. Clearly, the SEC has adjusted best to the new era of collegiate athletics: spending money on coaches and in the transfer portal really matters. It remains to be seen how next year’s revenue-sharing rules will impact things, but the depth of this league is insane. Vanderbilt was picked to finish last in the preseason in Mark Byington’s first season as head coach, but the Commodores won 20 games and earned an NCAA berth.
What happened to the ACC, you ask? The league received just four bids on Selection Sunday—much lower than the conference’s record-tying nine bids in 2018. There have been a lot of factors for the league’s demise: NIL, the transfer portal, financial constraints relative to other major conferences and coaching turnover are just some of those reasons. League commissioner Jim Phillips is overseeing a conference in serious disarray.
But there is still Duke, which along with Auburn entered Championship Week as the odds-on favorite for the top overall seed before the Tigers ultimately nabbed it.
So which team will cut down the nets the evening of April 7 at the Alamodome in San Antonio?
Let’s break down the full 68-team field…
SOUTH (ATLANTA)
No. 1 seed: Auburn. The Tigers could potentially face a tough Round of 32 contest against No. 9 Creighton, which faces No. 8 Louisville in the first round. Ryan Kalkbrenner will be a very difficult matchup for the Cardinals, who will have to deal with the star big man at both ends of the floor. Auburn has lost three of four entering the tournament, but Johni Broome (18.6 points, 10.6 rebounds, 2.6 blocks per game) and the guard play proved their excellence throughout the season. The Tigers locked in the No. 1 overall seed due to an insanely strong résumé. Maybe getting out of SEC play will breathe new life into this unit, which is experienced and deep as Bruce Pearl looks to win the program’s first national title.
Second-seeded Michigan State boasts talented freshman lefty Jase Richardson, the son of former Spartans star Jason Richardson (man, am I old). Either Marquette or New Mexico would loom in the second round, with the Golden Eagles boasting star Kam Jones at the point and the Lobos running their offense behind underrated point guard Donovan Dent.
The potential Round of 32 matchup I am dying to see is No. 3 Iowa State against No. 6 Ole Miss. While the Cyclones are going to be without star guard Keshon Gilbert, Curtis Jones is a dangerous sixth man, and this is a better overall team than the Rebels, who played a brutal SEC schedule. Ole Miss takes very good control of the ball, though. However, it is not a great rebounding squad.
I would lean toward an Auburn-Michigan State Elite Eight clash. The Tigers are the better shooting team and have Broome, who could be the difference. The Spartans are shooting just 30.2 percent from beyond the arc but are one of the best defensive teams in the country.
Keep an eye on: No. 11 seed North Carolina, which was one of the last teams in the field and one that has provided a lot of fuel for college basketball pundits who did not agree with the decision to put the team in. A First Four team has gone on to win a first-round game in 12 of 13 tournaments. And also 12-seed UC San Diego, which has the nation’s longest winning streak. Can the Tritons be a Sweet 16 darling?
WEST (SAN FRANCISCO)
No. 1 seed: Florida. The Gators won the SEC tournament behind the play of star Iona transfer Walter Clayton Jr., who is one of the best offensive players in the country. On paper, though, a potential Round of 32 matchup against two-time defending national champion UConn looks like a bad draw for a team that one could argue is the best in the nation. But the Huskies are just not a match this year for the Gators behind Clayton Jr. and a cast that includes Alex Condon, Will Richard and FAU transfer Alijah Martin—all averaging double figures in scoring.
The Gators could eventually face second-seeded St. John’s in the Elite Eight if the Red Storm can consistently shoot. Rick Pitino’s squad plays with a dogged intensity on the defensive side of the ball and can work the glass behind Kansas transfer Zuby Ejiofor, who notched 33 points against Marquette in the Big East semifinal. Guard Kadary Richmond and wing RJ Luis Jr. are also tough matchups. The Johnnies have won 19 of their last 20; clashes with Big 12 members Kansas and Texas Tech potentially loom before a possible showdown with the Gators, who arguably have the toughest path of any of the No. 1 seeds. UF is playing as well as any team in the country, but it has St. John’s, Texas Tech and Maryland in its region.
Keep an eye on: No. 12 seed Colorado State, which is led by Nique Clifford and has won 10 in a row, including the Mountain West tournament. First-round opponent Memphis could be without Tyrese Hunter (foot), putting more stress on backcourt mate PJ Haggerty. A very good Maryland team would loom in the Round of 32, though.
EAST (NEWARK)
No. 1 seed: Duke. The health of likely national player of the year Cooper Flagg (ankle sprain) is of primary concern for the Blue Devils, as he leads the team in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals and blocks. Defensive stalwart Maliq Brown could miss time with a shoulder injury, too. Mississippi State could be the foe in the Round of 32, and the Bulldogs shouldn’t be intimidated after their SEC slate, but the Blue Devils are just an overall better team in what should be a physical game if the teams do meet. The Blue Devils start three freshmen (Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach), but it’s a unit that defends and has also defeated Auburn.
The possible Sweet 16 matchup between Duke and No. 4 Arizona would be very intriguing because the Blue Devils beat Arizona on the road in November, holding the Wildcats to just 55 points. As is the case most times for the Wildcats, it could come down to which version of Caleb Love takes the court. The former North Carolina Tar Heel can come up big—when he’s on a good streak. He’s the ultimate X-factor. Old-school Pac-12 fans may be clamoring for an Arizona-No. 5 Oregon Round of 32 matchup. The Ducks have won 8 of 9, but the Wildcats have been playing very well as of late.
And then there’s second-seeded Alabama, which faces the possibility of not having a healthy Grant Nelson available. He did not play in the second half of the SEC tournament semifinal loss to Florida. The Crimson Tide leave a lot to be desired defensively, as well.
A Round of 32 matchup I hope we get to see is No. 3 Wisconsin versus No. 6 BYU. How many combined 3-point attempts could we expect to see in that one? Led by one of the Big Ten’s best players John Tonje, this is not your older brother’s Wisconsin squad, and the Cougars can play at a frenetic pace. But Richie Saunders and the Cougars will have to get past a VCU team that has the highest offensive and defensive efficiency in the Atlantic 10. Rams head coach Ryan Odom oversaw the 16th-seeded Maryland-Baltimore County squad upset No. 1-seed Virginia in 2018.
Keep an eye on: No. 6 BYU, which has been playing very well. The Nelson injury could open things up for the Cougars to make a run to the Elite Eight, but limiting their turnovers against VCU in the opener is a must.
MIDWEST (INDIANAPOLIS)
No. 1 seed: Houston. Could this be the year Kelvin Sampson sheds the label of best coach never to win a national title? Led by L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp, the Cougars allow the second-fewest point per game in D-1 (58.5). Meanwhile, second-seeded Tennessee, led by Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier, is deep, experienced and physical. An Elite Eight matchup between these teams would be a dog fight. Sampson has made the Final Four, the Elite Eight and the Sweet 16 (three times) over the past five seasons, but this is probably his best Cougars squad.
Third-seeded Kentucky is a wild card. Mark Pope’s unit averages 85.3 points per game, good for fourth in D-1. But the Wildcats have some health issues with Jaxson Robinson out for the season and Lamont Butler nursing a shoulder.
Keep an eye on: No. 6 Illinois, though which version of the Fighting Illini are we going to see? The team that beat Michigan by 20 on the road in early March also lost by 43 to Duke and by 23 to Maryland. The Fighting Illini don’t play very much defense, but when they are clicking they can hang against a team like Tennessee. Too much of a risk for me, but it’s a team that can still loom dangerously.
Fast break points
Most dangerous 16 seed: Norfolk State. Robert Jones III led the Spartans to their third trip to the NCAA Tournament in the past five years. Brian Moore Jr. can knock down threes consistently and has had eight games with at least 24 points this season. Overall, it’s a good shooting unit.
Most dangerous 15 seed: Robert Morris. Andy Toole and the Colonials are back in the Big Dance after a 10-year absence. Alvaro Folgueiras, a 6-9 forward and the Horizon League’s player of the year, leads the way. This conference has claimed an NCAA Tournament win in two of the past three years.
Most dangerous 14 seed: UNC-Wilmington. Takayo Siddle has put together four consecutive seasons of 20-plus wins and has the Seahawks in their first NCAA Tournament appearance in eight years. This is a dangerous offense.
Most dangerous 13 seed: High Point. Second-year coach Alan Huss was named Big South coach of the year and has two all-league first-team selections in Kimani Hamilton and Kezza Giffa. High Point also enters the Big Dance with the nation’s longest winning streak at 14 games.
Honorable mentions to: Yale, which beat Auburn in the first round last season, and is back in the Dance with three-time Ivy League defensive player of the year
Bez Mbeng leading the way despite the team losing Danny Wolf to Michigan; Akron, which under John Groce has lost only one game since December 30 and is a sharp-shooting team; and Grand Canyon, which beat Saint Mary’s in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season and is riding its sound defense this year.
My Final Four:
So I am hoping for chaos, obviously, because that’s what makes this tournament so special. And there are so many good teams out there capable of making runs, but my Final Four predictions are:
South: 1) Auburn
West: 1) Florida
East: 4) Arizona
Midwest: 1) Houston
Title game: Houston over Auburn
All expectations are for this to truly be a tournament filled with madness. Let’s just hope that smarter heads prevail and the tournament doesn’t expand even further, something Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark is in favor of as he stated ahead of the Big 12 tournament last week. It was perfect at 64; the 68-team configuration was unnecessary in my opinion. Seventy-six, which Yormark thinks is “the right number,” is ludicrous.
Enjoy the madness, everyone!
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