College Football Playoff semifinals preview
Which Buckeyes team shows up, and can the Horned Frogs deliver for 60 minutes?
Get ready, folks, because a beautiful New Year’s Eve is on tap with the College Football Playoff semifinals taking place before we ring in 2023.
Let’s not waste any more time and dive right into the two matchups…
Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 TCU (State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ), 4:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Jim Harbaugh fielded an even better team than the one that broke through and made the CFP last season, as Michigan logged a second consecutive win over Ohio State and became the new standard in the Big Ten with another conference crown. That awful shortened 2020 campaign seems like eons ago, and the Wolverines are now regarded as the biggest threat to preventing Georgia from repeating as national champions.
Meanwhile, TCU came up just a little bit short against Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game, but Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs deservedly still earned a CFP berth following a breakthrough—and wild—season.
Michigan’s offense has continued to evolve despite losing star RB Blake Corum to a season-ending injury. Donovan Edwards set a career high for rushing yards (216) against Ohio State and followed that up with an MVP perforance against Purdue in the Big Ten title game. The rushing attack has lifted a lot of pressure off QB J.J. McCarthy, whose ability to distance himself from a subpar game in a near-loss to Illinois has been huge. The sophomore looks comfortable going downfield and has 6 TDs in the last two games. However, his counterpart will be more than up for a challenge.
Horned Frogs star signal caller and Heisman Trophy finalist Max Duggan, who began the season as the backup, was arguably the most important player on any team in the country this past fall. In fact, he had my top Heisman vote.
Duggan showed his MVP qualities all year after taking over starting duties, culminating with his performance in the Big 12 title game. The senior threw for 251 yards and added 110 more and two scores on the ground, and he led the Horned Frogs on an 80-yard drive to force overtime against K-State.
Expect Duggan to get his yards against this Michigan defense, though it will be the toughest unit he has faced this season. The question will be whether the Wolverines can put a lid on the big plays created by the likes of all-Big 12 RB Kendre Miller (1,342 rushing yards, 17 TDs) and speedy first-team All-American PR Derius Davis. Michigan is No. 3 nationally in yards allowed per game (277.1) and fifth in scoring defense (13.4 points). The Frogs will want to push the pace and take it to the air often, especially with Michigan allowing just 2.9 yards per carry. Another Duggan special will be needed for TCU to stay in this one for 60 minutes.
As mentioned, this Wolverines rushing attack remains very explosive with Edwards, who has averaged 8.5 yards per carry over the past two games. McCarthy is also peaking, has played his best football the last two games and has a 20:3 TD-to-INT ratio this year. He was a big part of the program going unbeatean in the regular season for the first time since 1997. But this is a good TCU pass defense, so he will face perhaps his biggest challenge yet—though winning in Columbus was a pretty big chore itself, and look what happened at the Horseshoe.
Peach Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA), 8:00 p.m., ESPN
Which Ohio State team will show up? The one that essentially coasted through the regular season, or the one Michigan steamrolled in the second half on Thanksgiving weekend? The Buckeyes lost to the Wolverines by 22 points but still managed to earn the No. 4 seed in the CFP, giving Ryan Day and his staff the chance to coach up an emotionally wounded squad.
But things won’t be easy against defending national champion Georgia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta—a virtual home game for the Bulldogs, who are back in the CFP even after losing a record 15 (!!!) players to the NFL. Despite being the No. 1 seed, though, you can make an argument the ‘Dawgs received the tougher semifinal matchup—no offense to TCU. OSU will field a squad that matches up very well in terms of size and speed, and both of these schools essentially recruit the same players year in and year out.
There is no doubt OSU has an explosive offense, ranking No. 2 nationally in scoring. But this Bulldogs defense, featuring DL Jalen Carter and LB Nolan Smith, is allowing just 12.8 points per contest, is stout against the run and can get after the quarterback. It will be quite a challenge for Heisman Trophy finalist C.J. Stroud and Co. However, the Buckeyes have an insanely talented and deep receiving corps, which will try to find holes against a UGA secondary that was porous against LSU in the SEC title game—though a lot of those yards were racked up late. Remember UGA held the electric Tennessee offense to just 195 passing yards. Generating pressure will be key.
The Buckeyes dealt with a banged-up backfield late in the year, but Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson have had time to rest. However, Georgia is No. 1 nationally against the run (77 yards per game). If it’s tough sledding on the ground for the Buckeyes, can Stroud play perhaps his best game of the season?
Meanwhile, the ‘Dawgs have a deep and productive RB trio of Kenny McIntosh, Dijon Edwards and Kendall Milton that combined for over 200 yards per contest. The Buckeyes were sound against the run this past fall, but that UGA offensive line is one of a kind, so it will look to overwhelm over four quarters. Stetson Bennett, of course, is not just a game manager. But things become much easier when the ground game is clicking, allowing him to find a bevy of receiving options when the offense is humming.
The other New Year’s Eve games
Music City Bowl: Iowa vs. Kentucky (Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN), Noon, ABC
The Wildcats will be without QB Will Levis and RB Chris Rodriguez, while the Hawkeyes won’t have QB Spencer Petras, though their passing game was pretty much non-existent this past fall. They were only able to hit the 200-yard mark twice, so Joey Labas can’t do much worse. Iowa’s defense, though, was strong once again and the team managed to pull off a five-game winning streak in the second half of the year. And even with Levis, UK’s offense was disappointing because the offensive line was porous. The over/under is 31—incredibly low, but it may be on point.
Sugar Bowl: No. 5 ‘Bama vs. No. 9 K-St. (Superdome, New Orleans, LA), Noon, ESPN
Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide, in this scribe’s opinion, had a very valid argument for the No. 4 seed in the CFP. This year marks just the second time the Tide missed the Playoff in nine seasons. But if you’re wondering if ‘Bama will be motivated, keep in mind QB Bryce Young and stud defender Will Anderson are expected to play. So Chris Klieman’s crew will have its hands full in this first-ever meeting between the programs.
Young played most of the second half of the season with a sprained shoulder, but he should be primed for a showcase game after time off against a K-State secondary that has been susceptible. Can Felix Anudike-Uzomah and Co. generate some pressure and rattle the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner? Meanwhile, Will Howard, Deuce Vaughn and crew have a very balanced offense, but this will be quite a challenge against the Tide defense. Keep an eye on when the ‘Cats face third down on offense: K-State’s conversion percentage stands at 39%, while ‘Bama allows just a 29.4% conversion rate (eighth nationally). Howard has been fantastic, though, and this ‘Tide secondary can give up big plays. Still, this could be an angry ‘Bama squad—and that could be bad news for the Wildcats.
CFP best bets
*U 58.5 Michigan-TCU
*Georgia -7
Cocktail of the week
It wouldn’t be NYE without cocktails. But we have a lot of football to watch, so we need to promote endurance: enter the Negroni Sbagliato—which translates to “incorrect Negroni.” It’s the classic Negroni, but with a twist. This drink offers us a lower ABV as we switch in prosecco for gin.
Prep instructions:
-Combine 1 oz. Campari and 1 oz. sweet vermouth in a mixing glass filled with ice.
-Stir until chilled well.
-Strain into a rocks glass over a large ice cube (or a healthy amount of regular ice).
-Add 1 oz. Prosecco. Stir once clockwise.
-Garnish with an orange peel.
-Enjoy!
I hope everyone has a beautiful New Year’s Eve and a great start to 2023! Go Lions! #OnePride
Follow me on Twitter @Miller_Dave & email me at david.matthew.miller@gmail.com