New Year’s Eve certainly looks different than when the postseason schedule was announced earlier this month. The Arizona Bowl was canceled after COVID-19 issues struck the Boise State program, while both the Gator Bowl (Rutgers) and Sun Bowl (Central Michigan) needed to find replacement teams for programs dealing with their own COVID situations.
Before we dive into the College Football Playoff semifinals, let’s take a look at the other New Year’s Eve games on tap…
Gator Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Rutgers, 11:00 a.m. ET, ESPN
Simply put, the Demon Deacons are the much better football team. Dave Clawson’s squad has a chance to tie the program record for wins in a season (2006), and it will come against a Scarlet Knights team that stepped in for Texas A&M, which opted out of this showcase game after dealing with a bevy of issues, including COVID-19, opt-outs and injuries. Rutgers had the best Academic Progress Rate score from the group of 5-7 teams, but Greg Schiano’s squad—coming off of a 40-16 loss to Maryland—will be running on much less prep time against a Wake outfit that ranks fifth nationally in scoring at 41.2 points per game behind QB Sam Hartman and playmaking receivers Jaquarii Roberson and A.T. Perry. The Scarlet Knights had a 27-day break between their season finale and finding out that they had one more game to compete in. This could get ugly.
Pick: Wake Forest -14.5
Sun Bowl: Washington State vs. Central Michigan, 2:00 p.m., CBS
In the other New Year’s Eve contest directly affected by COVID, Washington State will face a Central Michigan team that was supposed to play Boise State in the Arizona Bowl. Instead, the Chippewas received a date in El Paso when Miami (FL) was unable to participate. So Jim McElwain’s crew is now in its most high-profile bowl game in school history.
Under new head coach Jake Dickert, meanwhile, Wazzu held its own and won three of its last four games by double digits behind the arm of QB Jayden de Laura, who went 27-of-32 through the air in the regular-season finale against a good Washington pass defense. CMU is stingy against the run, though, so Max Borghi will have his work cut out for him. On the other side of the ball, Lew Nichols III is the centerpiece of the CMU offense. He leads the nation with 1,710 rushing yards and has found the end zone 15 times on the ground.
This could end up being one of the more fun games of the postseason, and it will take place among one of the best settings in the sport’s bowl schedule: beautiful El Paso.
Pick: Central Michigan +7.5
Okay, onto the College Football Playoff semifinal matchups…
Cotton Bowl (CFP Semifinal): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Cincinnati, 3:30, ESPN
Luke Fickell’s Bearcats punched their ticket to the CFP with a 35-20 win over Houston in the AAC title game, becoming the first Group of Five team to make the four-team field. Cincinnati finished the regular season 13-0 and is the only undefeated team in the country, complete with a marquee road win over Notre Dame. Behind steady QB Desmond Ridder, lockdown CBs Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant and disruptive DE Myjai Sanders, Cincy calmly handled the growing intensity and pressure as the weeks went on and now gets its biggest test yet.
Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide, meanwhile, are back in the CFP and ready to defend their national title after Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young had his way with the nation’s top-ranked defense, tossing 3 TDs and running for a fourth in a 41-24 win over Georgia in the SEC championship. Young beautifully executed Bill O’Brien’s offense, setting league championship records with 421 passing yards and 461 yards of total offense. This is ‘Bama’s seventh CFP appearance in the eight-year history of the format, though it certainly didn’t appear as if the Tide would get the chance to defend their crown when they were desperate and on the ropes against Auburn in an eventual 4-OT win in the Iron Bowl. But here we are. And this was supposed to be a “rebuilding” year in Tuscaloosa. Same as it ever was.
There shouldn’t be any doubts about Fickell’s crew holding its own and competing physically with a team of Alabama’s ilk because it did so against Georgia in last year’s Peach Bowl and controlled the matchup with Notre Dame this fall. Its starting corners will be the best the Tide have seen this year, and ‘Bama’s offense might find life even more difficult without WR John Metchie III, who led the team in receptions (96) but is out with an ACL injury. This Cincy pass rush is nasty and exotic, which could cause problems for a Tide O-Line that has looked shaky at times, particularly against LSU and Auburn. We may see some max protection from the Tide as they did against UGA, which allowed the offense to get comfortable and rolling.
One thing is certain: this moment won’t be too big for the Bearcats. But can they ultimately complete the task and score the biggest win in program history?
Pick: Cincinnati +13
Orange Bowl (CFP Semifinal): No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Georgia, 7:30, ESPN
Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs were the most dominant team throughout the regular season behind a defense that was allowing less than 7 points per game and just over 230 yards per contest—until Alabama gave them their first blemish. This was a UGA defense that had not allowed more than 17 points in a game all year, so DC Dan Lanning—who is the new head coach at Oregon but has remained with the ‘Dawgs this postseason—will be looking for a big bounce back effort as UGA looks to claim its first national title since 1980.
Offensively, QB Stetson Bennett threw for 340 yards and 3 TDs in the SEC title game, though he also had 2 INTs. All signs point to Bennett getting the starting nod over JT Daniels, though, despite the former USC Trojan recently clearing COVID protocol. The Bulldogs allowed just 11 sacks all season, and the duo of Zamir White and James Cook will get plenty of carries. Michigan will need Aidan Hutchinson (14 sacks) and David Ojabo (11 sacks) to make Bennett as uncomfortable as possible—and that starts with containing the ground game and creating obvious passing downs. On both sides of the ball, Smart has the tough task of restoring confidence and building back the psyche of this team following the loss to ‘Bama.
Meanwhile, Jim Harbaugh finally had his breakthrough season in Ann Arbor, putting together his best team since the 2016 unit that fell just short against Ohio State with a CFP bid on the line. The Wolverines would be undefeated if not for a late loss to Michigan State, which rode Kenneth Walker III to victory after the Spartans were down 16 points in the fourth quarter. But Michigan bounced back and beat the Buckeyes for the first time in a decade and then dominated Iowa to win its first outright Big Ten title since 2003. Cade McNamara has been very steady under center, while freshman J.J. McCarthy adds a “wow” factor and is used in certain packages. But this is still a team that wants to pound the rock with Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins.
Both of these teams have standout defenses and love to run the football. These are not your older brother’s Wolverines, so Georgia fans should be prepared for a four-quarter slug fest—as long as Michigan is able to settle down and adjust to UGA’s stout front seven, which is unlike anything it has seen before. Expect a bounce back UGA defensive effort, but the Wolverines can match that physicality.
Pick: Michigan +7.5
Enjoy your New Year’s Eve, and don’t be too hungover the following morning because a full slate of action is scheduled for January 1, of course.
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