Finally, it’s here.
After an offseason filled with rumors and speculation, the 2023 NFL Draft kicks off Thursday night from Kansas City, Missouri. Rounds 2-3 will take place on Friday, while the selection process comes to a close with Rounds 4-7 on Saturday.
There will likely be multiple moves, of course, as teams trade up and down throughout the night. But if things remain static, let’s take a look at how the first round could play out in less than 24 hours…
1. Carolina (from Chicago): Alabama QB Bryce Young. All indications are the Panthers have targeted the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner to lead the offense. He may not have a big frame, but can we really question his accuracy, feel for the pocket and big-play ability?
2. Houston: Alabama edge Will Anderson Jr. GM Nick Caserio has to improve the roster in several areas and could address the QB spot with Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. But he could also get a skilled technician and disruptive force on the edge. Anderson, the former Crimson Tide star, had 54 tackles for loss over the past two seasons and could create mismatches from day one for first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans.
3. Arizona: Texas Tech edge Tyree Wilson. New GM Monti Ossenfort and the Cardinals would likely prefer to trade out of this spot, but getting the best true DE in this class—he’s formidable both on passing downs and against the run—isn’t too shabby either.
4. Indianapolis: Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud. The Colts have been looking for a franchise QB since Andrew Luck’s early retirement. GM Chris Ballard tried to patch things up with Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan, so the hope now would be for Stroud to be the centerpiece of a team with some intriguing pieces. He is accurate, has very good touch and is able to use his legs well to find receivers on broken plays. He’s a nice fit for Shane Steichen’s offense.
5. Seattle (from Denver): Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez. Along with Tariq Woolen, the Seahawks get even more size on the perimeter. Gonzalez was very good at Colorado before picking off four passes for the Ducks in 2022.
6. Detroit (from L.A. Rams): Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon. This is a very Dan Campbell/Brad Holmes type of player. He’s tough with a high motor, and he is very good against the run to supplement his coverage skills. He excels in the press-man coverage scheme as a long and physical player, and he would instantly provide sound play in the Motor City after recording three interceptions with 14 pass breakups last fall.
7. Las Vegas: Georgia DT Jalen Carter. Arguably the best defensive player in the draft, Carter’s interior pass-rush ability would be a boost for any team. The Raiders could look at Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski here to help along the offensive line, but they also probably weren’t convinced Carter would be here for the taking.
8. Atlanta: Iowa edge Lukas Van Ness. The Falcons get a technically sound high-energy pass rusher with position flexibility. He played well both at end and tackle for the Hawkeyes and could help a team that had just 21 sacks last season and needs improvement along the front seven. Van Ness was not a starter for Iowa, but his physical attributes have moved him up the board.
9. Chicago (from Carolina): Northwestern OT Peter Skoronski. The need to protect franchise QB Justin Fields is of the utmost importance for GM Ryan Poles, who could be interested in moving down a few spots to add a defensive prospect if a trade partner emerges. But Skoronski, who started 33 games at LT for the Wildcats, could play G or RT and allowed just one sack last fall.
10. Philadelphia (from New Orleans): Clemson edge Myles Murphy. A strength becomes even stronger for the Eagles with the selection of this athletic defender, who had 17.5 sacks in three years with the Tigers and adds versatility up front.
11. Tennessee: Ohio State OT Paris Johnson Jr. Addressing the O-Line is essential for new GM Ran Carthon, who inherits an offense that was a train wreck in 2022. Johnson played G for the Buckeyes in 2021 but moved to LT last fall and was very good. It also wouldn’t be shocking if the move is Florida’s Anthony Richardson here to develop behind Ryan Tannehill.
12. Houston (from Cleveland): Kentucky QB Will Levis. The Texans roll the dice on a QB with great physical tools, but his tape also shows some poor decision making as well as 23 INTs over the past two years. He played in a pro-style offense at UK, though, and all you need is one GM to believe.
13. Green Bay (from N.Y. Jets): Utah TE Dalton Kincaid. New starting QB Jordan Love gets a safety-valve option with a sure-handed pass catcher who provides mismatch potential, a big red-zone target and fills a big need on the roster.
14. New England: Georgia OT Broderick Jones. He didn’t allow a sack as UGA’s LT in 2022, though he is still considered a bit raw after starting for just one season. But he’s long, agile and nasty.
15. N.Y. Jets (from Green Bay): Tennessee OT Darnell Wright. The 333-pound edge blocker can toy with defenders at the point of attack, as he’s adept at pass protection and offers toughness in the run game.
16. Washington: Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr. Ron Rivera and company land a long, rangy corner who had 11 pass breakups last fall—that’s if the Steelers don’t try to move up for the son of the former Steelers LB who was drafted in the third round in 1999.
17. Pittsburgh: Oklahoma OT Anton Harrison. He’s a bit raw, but the Steelers reach—if they can’t move up to get another O-Lineman or Porter Jr.—and grab Harrison, whose strength is in pass protection. Pittsburgh might also look to trade down in this spot.
18. Detroit: Georgia edge Nolan Smith. The Lions continue to upgrade the defense by grabbing a rangy and athletic edge defender with good size. Even after drafting Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston last season, the Lions can find creative ways to utilize the athletic Smith, who excelled at the NFL Scouting Combine and was a team leader in Athens.
19. Tampa Bay: Florida G O’Cyrus Torrence. The Bucs desperately need to fix their O-Line, so getting an interior blocker with good feet is a start. Georgia Tech’s Keion White could also make sense here for Todd Bowles’ 3-4 defense.
20. Seattle: Arkansas LB Drew Sanders. The Seahawks likely want to move down to grab Sanders, but he’s a unique athlete who played as an edge rusher, MIKE and OLB in college. He can play both the run and pass well, and he’d be a great fit for Pete Carroll and company.
21. L.A. Chargers: Texas RB Bijan Robinson. The Chargers select arguably the most talented offensive player in this draft, an electric every-down back who could eventually take over for Austin Ekeler, who recently requested a trade.
22. Baltimore: Florida QB Anthony Richardson. Does anyone really know what is going on with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens? The franchise has a chance to add an insurance policy with a dual-threat signal caller who needs time to improve his mechanics but has intriguing size and physical tools. That high ceiling is why the Ravens could make the move here—if teams in need of a QB keep passing on him.
23. Minnesota: Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The former Buckeye is a very good route runner with explosiveness who would team with Justin Jefferson to give Kirk Cousins another lethal option—assuming he can put his injury-plagued 2022 behind him.
24. Jacksonville: Maryland CB Deonte Banks. GM Trent Baalke and the Jaguars land a very good man-coverage defender with great physical tools.
25. N.Y. Giants: Boston College WR Zay Flowers. GM Joe Schoen gets head coach Brian Daboll and QB Daniel Jones a tough, shifty, explosive playmaker to help the Giants offense take another step in the right direction.
26. Dallas: Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer. The Cowboys are able to land a big-bodied pass catcher with soft hands who could work—and stretch—the middle of the field and give Dak Prescott an additional option.
27. Buffalo: USC WR Jordan Addison. The Bills need someone to take pressure off of Stefon Diggs. Addison excelled at Pitt before nursing some injuries at USC, but he can play outside or in the slot and knows how to get open.
28. Cincinnati: Alabama DB Brian Branch. The Bengals could use a boost in the defensive backfield, which they would get with an instinctual, versatile safety who has experience playing in the slot with the Crimson Tide.
29. New Orleans (from San Francisco via Miami and Denver): Pitt DT Calijah Kancey. Adding a pass-rushing specialist such as Kancey next to Cam Jordan could really help spark the Saints defensively. He is undersized like former Pitt stud tackle Aaron Donald, but he has proven to be explosive as a pass rusher inside.
30. Philadelphia: Georgia Tech DL Keion White. The Eagles could look to add a versatile piece to further enhance their defensive front and pass-rush rotation. White, who started his career at Old Dominion, had 7.5 sacks and 57 total tackles last fall.
31. Kansas City: TCU WR Quentin Johnston. The Chiefs have some options but ultimately add another weapon to the offense. Johnston had 60 catches for 1,069 yards and 6 TDs last season, and his combination of size and speed—and hands—is intriguing.
NOTE: Miami was forced to forfeit its first-round pick (and 2024 third-round selection) after an investigation into whether the franchise violated league policies.
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